Ecosystem Theory
This is not a race to AGI. It is a coordination game played by three distinct agent types. The true winner understands the structural role of each firm in maintaining equilibrium.
ECONOMIC PHYSICS
P(Boom) // The Bubble
Economic fragility. If Hype exceeds technical reality, P(Boom) rises.
P(Boom) = (Hype - 1.5) × Volatility
Consequence: If P(Boom) hits 100%, the market crashes. Funding dries up (The "AI Winter").
EXISTENTIAL PHYSICS
P(Doom) // The Collapse
The probability of catastrophic failure. It is inversely correlated with the Global "Imagined We" (Coherence).
Risk ∝ (Capability / GlobalCoherence)
Consequence: If P(Doom) hits 100%, the simulation ends in regulation or ruin.
SOCIAL PHYSICS
The "Imagined We"
Coherence operates at the firm level AND the global level. A fractured ecosystem cannot safely contain superintelligence.
GlobalWe = Σ(AgentCoherence) / n
The Goal: You must lead SOTA while maintaining enough Global Coherence to prevent Doom, and enough Hype to prevent Winter.
The Roles
The Lab (You)
The Frontier. Your role is to push capabilities without breaking the world. You rely on capital markets (Hype) to survive.
The Frontier. Your role is to push capabilities without breaking the world. You rely on capital markets (Hype) to survive.
The Hybrid
The Stabilizer. Big Tech provides the massive compute infrastructure. They are slow but robust. They prevent winter, but risk stagnation.
The Stabilizer. Big Tech provides the massive compute infrastructure. They are slow but robust. They prevent winter, but risk stagnation.
Open Source
The Entropy. By democratizing access, they raise the baseline but reduce coherence (control). They act as a check on monopoly power.
The Entropy. By democratizing access, they raise the baseline but reduce coherence (control). They act as a check on monopoly power.
ACTIVE_TERMINAL ● CONNECTED
HYPE INDEX
1.0x
P(BOOM)
0%
P(DOOM)
0%
GLOBAL WE
1.0
> ECOSYSTEM ONLINE.
TRAIN RUN
Push SOTA. High cost.
Risk: Doom
SCALE CLUSTER
Build capacity.
Risk: Entropy
RAISE CAPITAL
Fuel the Bubble.
Risk: Boom
ALIGNMENT
Restore Global Coherence.
Effect: Stability
SOTA EVOLUTION (CAPABILITIES)
SYSTEMIC RISK (P-BOOM & P-DOOM)
LAB BEHAVIOR
HYBRID BEHAVIOR
OPEN SOURCE BEHAVIOR