Ecosystem Physics as a Markov Game
Three strategic actors (Lab, Hybrid, Open Source) interact inside a shared environment with rival resources (compute, capital)
and non-rival spillovers (commons). System stability emerges from coupled feedback loops: markets, concentration, diversity, coordination.
MARKOV GAME
State / Actions / Transition
The engine exposes a clean interface: s, joint action a, transition P(s'|s,a).
s = { Hype, Reality, BoomRisk, DoomRisk, GlobalWe, Diversity, Commons, Markets, Agents }
This separation makes it easy to plug in MARL later (IQL/CTDE), while keeping a faithful toy now.
MARKETS
Rival vs Non-rival
Compute and capital are rival and priced endogenously (utilization / liquidity). Commons is non-rival and accumulates via releases & training.
ComputePrice ↑ as Utilization → 1.0 // CapitalPrice ↑ as Liquidity ↓
Concentration improves private capability short-term, but can reduce diversity (exploration + data variety) long-term.
ECOLOGY
Diversity & Coordination
Diversity regenerates slowly and is penalized by concentration + hype-driven homogenization. GlobalWe is average coherence with entropy decay.
Diversityₜ₊₁ = Diversityₜ + regen − concPenalty
DoomRisk += accel × (1 − GlobalWe) × divPenalty
“Imagined We” is implemented as a small belief update over latent objective weights that agents infer from penalties.
Controls
Actions: T Train, S Scale, R Raise, A Align,
Step: Space, Auto: Enter, Undo: U, Reset: Shift+Backspace.
Save/Load in the left panel (Active).
ACTIVE_TERMINAL
● connected
HYPE
1.00x
REALITY
1.00x
BOOM
0%
DOOM
0%
GLOBAL WE
1.00
DIVERSITY
1.00
TRAIN
Spend capital → compute-time → SOTA. Creates some commons.
Risk: Doom
SCALE
Invest capex → more capacity. Increases concentration pressure.
Risk: Diversity
RAISE
Get cash via markets. Inflates hype, drains liquidity.
Risk: Boom
ALIGN
Increase coherence + openness. Restores We, helps diversity/liquidity.
Effect: Stability
AVG SOTA (capability)
AVG RISK (Boom / Doom)
AVG ECOLOGY (Diversity / Commons)
LAB POLICY MIX
HYBRID / OPEN POLICY MIX